New Direction

I'm planning to move this blog in a new direction. To all my loyal readers out there, I know you were disappointed not to see a market commentary post last night, but I have decided to stop posting these as I see little value added in doing so. My plan going forward is to post less frequently (perhaps weekly?) with a more analytical tone about my thoughts on global financial markets. Hope to start this next week, have a great weekend everyone!

UK Labor Market Recovery?

Equities: Stocks continue to rally, finishing up for the 7th odd day in a row. Stocks seem on a permanent high, with nothing in the way to push it down. Hoping we are in for some kind of correction on the horizon, but now way to really predict the timing of this.

Currencies: Pound once again rose, on good UK jobs data showing unemployment fell. However the true picture was masked by the fact that many workers have dropped out of the labor force, and the actual number of people employed has fallen. This is a case of workers becoming discouraged and leaving the job market. Euro and Yen both held pretty flat against the Dollar today.

Commodities: Oil continues its upward trajectory, similar to stocks, nothing seems to be in its way. Gold was pretty flat today.

Hammered

Equities: Stocks up across the board about half a percentage point. Fed rate decision came in as expected. Building permits and housing starts both fell, however the fall was expected, so not a real market shaker.

Currencies: Lots of Dollar selling across the board today, got hammered on my Short EURUSD & GBPUSD positions as they have massively risen against the Dollar. Can't explain this very easily for the Pound, other that general Dollar weakness. Dovish comments coming from the Fed probably contributed to this.

Commodities: Oil reversed previous day's gains, although no longer holding any oil positions. Gold up about 20 bucks mainly on USD weakness (however it never seems to fall on USD strength)

One problem I'm finding is that my P&L tends to be extremely volatile because I am holding positions that are correlated. E.g. short gold and long USD, they tend to make and lose money at the same time. Need to find a way around this.

Some Risk Aversion Returns

Equities: Another fairly boring day for stocks. They opened lower then pared losses to finish the day slightly up. No real drivers of the market today. Looking ahead to the week, we have the Fed rate decision, although no movement is expected, so the impact of it will probably be muted.

Currencies: The Dollar rose against both the Euro and the Pound. Euro fell due to ministerial disagreements over Greece, and the Pound fell due to concerns over UK economy and prospects for a hung parliament. Nothing new here, just a continuation of a trend already in place. Some chatter on Moody's warning on the potential downgrade of US & UK AAA credit ratings, although nothing enough to move the markets. The Yen was pretty unchanged versus the Dollar.

Commodities: Oil fell sharply today. Sold off my put, taking a massive loss on it, however I didn't feel it would cross the strike in any significant way over the next two days so might as well pocket whatever remaining time value was left. Lesson learned: Don't make a long term bet on oil on a one month option. Gold rose today, as risk aversion today increased demand for the safe haven asset.

The Roaring Pound

Equities: Stocks once again finishing slightly higher on the day. Good retail sales numbers were offset by worse than expected consumer confidence figures, overall meaning that stocks were lacking direction and fluctuated between gains and losses throughout the day. Slowly rising through the week, stocks have ended the week considerably higher.

Currencies: The pound was the story of the day, got absolutely killed on my short GBPUSD position. It rose to at above 1.52 before later closing just below that level. Not fully sure what drove this, think it was a just due for a rise given all the recent falls. Euro also finished higher against the USD, so not a good day for my overall currency trades. USDJPY was pretty flat.

Commodities: Oil and gold both trader lower today, unfortunately for my oil put is it too little too late, as this is increasingly looking like it will finish worthless. Meanwhile, gold is drifting back towards the $1100 level, could we see more falls to come in the near future? Lets hope so for the sake of my June gold put. Thats all for now, have a great weekend all!

Yearly High for the S&P

Equities: Stocks spend most of the day flat then had a late rally to finish up half a percent or so. No real economic data coming to justify this. Volumes continue to remain low. S&P hits the all important 1150 mark, this could be a bullish signal going forward. US retail sales out tomorrow, should move the markets somewhat

Currencies: The Pound and Euro both rose today. The Euro rose on sentiment that the Greece crisis is now over and its problems will be contained. The Pound rose on UK inflation expectations coming in above market consensus. The Yen fell slightly against the Dollar. Overall risk sentiment improved data, hence the lower Dollar and Yen. Pretty slow in terms of news, otherwise.

Commodities: Oil and Gold both finished moderately higher today, with no real drivers of market action. Last couple of days have seen little movement, with low volatility expected to follow low volatility.

Nothing Exciting

Equities: Another flat day for equities, though they finished marginally higher. US inventory data came out positive, and borrowing came in worse than expected. Some conflicting data is still providing a lack of direction for stocks. Wonder what the implications of a large US deficit will be going forward. As this seems to be the norm across developed countries, we could see double dips around the world due to fiscal tightening.

Currencies: The Pound well today but pared most of its losses as the trading day went on. The Euro rose slightly, still trading around the same level over the past few weeks. Some words coming out that the Greek crisis is no longer an issue, but I don't believe it frankly. Looking like the politicians are trying to sweep the issue under the rug, but lets see if it resurfaces in the future.

Commodities: Oil was pretty flat on the day, inventories rose but less than expected. Gold was also flat on the day. Nothing exciting on the commodities front today, hopefully we some more action later on.